Thursday, October 1, 2026
73 ° Clear
73 ° Clear
As the Phillies entered the fourth inning with a 5-0 lead on Monday against the Pirates, it should have been the time to settle in and cruise to a victory. Once upon a time, Aaron Nola could be trusted to take a lead like that into the seventh inning with little damage, passing the ball off to the bullpen to close out the ball game. That simply is not the case anymore.
Not even two innings later, Nola handed the ball over to Phillies interim manager Don Mattingly with the score locked at 5-5 and three inherited runners set to score before the end of the inning. Nola, a pitcher once thought of as a top arm in the National League, fell apart once again.
Aaron Nola, a former All-Star and four-time recipient of Cy Young Award votes, is a part of a serious problem in the Phillies’ starting rotation. Philadelphia has the aces. What it does not have is stability behind them.
As recently as last season, the Phillies had one of the strongest starting rotations in all of baseball. Cristopher Sánchez and Zack Wheeler, both then and now, serve as two powerhouse aces at the top of the rotation. After them came calm, cool, and collected Ranger Suárez and the fiery Jesús Luzardo. Then came Nola in the fifth spot, with the occasional contributions of Mick Abel and Taijuan Walker.
Since then, Abel has been traded away, Suárez has signed with Boston in free agency and Walker has been released. A lot of the depth that surrounded the Phillies’ starting rotation suddenly disappeared.
The Phillies hoped Andrew Painter would be ready for the 2026 season, but he lasted only 14 starts before being sent back to the minors. A 7.06 ERA was not going to cut it as the young talent struggled with command issues, so he was sent back to Triple-A Lehigh Valley to continue honing his craft.
When Painter was sent down, the Phillies had a choice to make: who would start every fifth day?
The answer was to recall Alan Rangel and use him in any capacity each time through the rotation. In two bulk outings behind an opener, he has allowed five runs in nine innings of work.
Now, the Phillies’ rotation consists of two bona fide aces, a third starter with high potential yet high volatility in Luzardo, and two pitchers who cannot consistently reach the sixth inning.
The Phillies can survive a rotation cycle built around Sánchez, Wheeler and Luzardo. What they cannot do forever is ask the bullpen to cover the cracks every time Nola or the fifth spot comes around.
While the Phillies have had success in coming from behind in recent days, it is not sustainable to ask the offense and bullpen to play from a deficit and win consistently. Doing so would require a lot more out of high-leverage options like Jhoan Duran, José Alvarado and Orion Kerkering, the same players who get the call when the team is maintaining a lead. Some nights will come like Monday, when some of the pieces towards the back-end of the rotation, such as Seth Johnson and Chase Shugart, are called upon to get outs.
“At some point, we're gonna have to use the other guys,” said Don Mattingly on Monday. “They're gonna have to get their outs, and we still have a long way to go.”
You cannot empty the bullpen to win games from behind every fifth day. In the same regard, you cannot rely on the bullpen to survive two starters who will not make it to the fifth inning every time through.
If the Phillies require more stability in the rotation, what options are at their disposal?
In short, not many. Outside of Painter, there are no internal starting pitching options for the Phillies to pull from. Kolby Allard, a nine-year veteran whom the Phillies re-signed earlier in June, could be called upon to eat innings, but his 5.47 career ERA puts him as a spot start option, not a reliable replacement.
Chuck King is another potential option the Phillies could explore. 11 games into his season for Triple-A Lehigh Valley, he owns a 3.71 ERA. His ERA for June currently sits at 1.69, throwing 21 1/3 innings with 18 strikeouts.
Unless the Phillies want to take a chance on Allard or King, their only option to reinforce the pitching rotation is the trade market. While Tarik Skubal is a tempting option, he is likely a pipe dream given the Tigers’ assumed exorbitant asking price.
Other trade options exist, including Robbie Ray, Seth Lugo or Luis Severino. Each pitcher has their pros and cons, but the truth of the matter is simple: the Phillies do not need to trade for an ace; they just need someone who can eat five or six innings consistently every fifth day.
Andrew Painter needs more time and Aaron Nola has lost his touch. The 2026 Phillies can no longer wait for either of them to figure things out. They need a fifth starter before the trade deadline on August 3, someone who can keep the game upright for five or six innings and stop turning every rotation cycle into a bullpen fire drill.
Not an ace.
Just someone who can make the fifth inning feel ordinary again.
