Thursday, October 1, 2026
79 ° Clear
79 ° Clear
It all comes down to this.
After Sunday's victory over the Houston Astros, the Atlanta Braves won the National League East. This ended any opportunity for the Philadelphia Phillies to repeat as champions for the third straight season.
While the division was a long shot, the Phillies officially have only one path to the playoffs, which is through the Wild Card.
By splitting with the New York Mets, the Phillies are now sitting in the final Wild Card spot, trailing both the Chicago Cubs and San Diego Padres by a full game. Philly does have the tiebreaker over the Padres, giving them a slight edge if the two teams were to finish with the same record.
Trailing Philadelphia are the Arizona Diamondbacks, who are four games back of a playoff spot. Their magic number towards elimination sits at 3.0, meaning any combination of Phillies wins and Diamondbacks losses that tallies three will end their season.
According to FanGraphs, the Phillies have a 97.1% chance of making the postseason. However, nothing is ever truly guaranteed in sports.
A big boost to their playoff chances is thanks to the Padres and Diamondbacks meeting for one final series. This upcoming weekend will see these two teams play with the stakes at an all-time high.
Prior to that series, the Diamondbacks will face off against the Colorado Rockies in a series in which they should be able to handle business. The Padres, on the other hand, get the unfortunate pleasure of facing the Los Angeles Dodgers.
In Philly, two of Major League Baseball's best teams head to Citizens Bank Park. The Milwaukee Brewers and Tampa Bay Rays, the current one-seeds, have a chance to knock the Phillies out of the playoffs altogether.
Both LA and Milwaukee are playing for the top seed in this year's bracket, which means they will not be handing out victories to their opponents this week. Tampa Bay still needs to lock up the American League East, meaning they could also be playing their best baseball come Friday.
The math is simple. If the Phillies win three of their next six games, they qualify for the playoffs. If they win two or less, they then become reliant on the Arizona Diamondbacks to lose more games. If Philadelphia truly is deserving of making the playoffs, they will handle their own business.
If the season ended today, the Phillies would find themselves matched up with the Atlanta Braves. Unless they can leap the Padres or Cubs, it appears that Atlanta will be the club's first-round opponent.
In order for the Phillies to surpass the Cubs, they have to outplay Chicago by two games over the final six games in their respective seasons. If Chicago goes 6-0 or 5-1, the Phillies cannot leapfrog them in the standings. If the Cubs go 4-2, the Phillies would have to go 6-0 to finish out the season ahead.
In order for the Phillies to surpass the Padres, they have to outplay San Diego by only one game over the final six games in their respective seasons. If San Diego goes 6-0, the Phillies cannot leapfrog them in the standings. If the Padres go 5-1, the Phillies would have to go 6-0 to finish out the season ahead.
While unlikely, there is still a chance that Citizens Bank Park hosts the Wild Card round. This would see the Phillies passing both the Cubs and Padres and climbing up to the fourth seed in the National League bracket.
The next six games in Philadelphia have to be treated as elimination games. The playoffs start Tuesday in Philly, and perhaps the best team in baseball is ready to provide the Phillies their biggest test.
MORE: Eight Phillies are heading to the Arizona Fall League
