Thursday, October 1, 2026
73 ° Clear
73 ° Clear
With 12 games to go in their season, the Philadelphia Phillies are stuck in a crossroad. A sense of urgency is required, as the club has not yet secured a postseason berth. They enter play on Tuesday evening against the Washington Nationals with a magic number of eight.
While needing to handle their business and compete for homefield advantage in the first round, Philly also needs to keep an eye on their players. Starting pitcher Jesus Luzardo had to miss his last start due to shoulder stiffness in his throwing arm. While an MRI revealed no damage, this needs to be a wake-up call for the organization.
They need to keep their players fresh ahead of the biggest stretch of their season. But they also need to win. A fun predicament for skipper Don Mattingly.
Ahead of their series opener in D.C., the Phillies trail the Chicago Cubs by .5 games in the race for the top Wild Card seed. However, they only lead the San Diego Padres by one game for the fifth playoff slot. On the outside looking in, the Arizona Diamondbacks trail the Padres by 2.5 games.
While the Phillies do not hold the tiebreaker with the Cubs, they do hold the honor over the Padres, giving them an additional game in hand as these teams race to the finish line.
Philadelphia has a 95.1% likelihood of clinching a playoff berth according to FanGraphs, though, their seed is very much up in the air.
There are still several potential first round scenarios at play, but the most likely outcome is that the Phillies will finish with the 5th seed, and head to Wrigley Field in the best of three series.
On July 27th, the Washington Nationals sat a game back of a Wild Card spot in the National League with a 54-53 record.
They had two MVP candidates in James Woods and CJ Abrams, with quality starting pitching from pitchers like Cade Cavalli and Foster Griffin. Washington had a prolific offense and momentum. It appeared the organization was taking the next step forward in their rebuild.
Since then, the club has gone 16-28 and dropped to the bottom of the National League. Washington’s bullpen has blown 38 saves this season, which is a modern baseball record. The Phillies have contributed to that total at various points throughout the season.
At this stage of the season, the Nationals are looking to finish the season healthy. They are positioning themselves for another high draft selection in the 2027 MLB Amateur Draft in July. Washington will head into the offseason looking to bulk up their pitching staff, with all eyes on shortstop Abrams, who is a potential trade candidate.
These are the two players to keep an eye on during this short series.
Hill played hero for the Phillies several times earlier this season against the Nationals.
With left-hander Jackson Kent on the mound Tuesday, Hill is expected to start in center field. While right-hander Cade Cavalli will start Wednesday, I would expect Hill to enter later in the ballgame in a pinch-hitting scenario.
Expecting more heroics may be a tad much, but I would anticipate Derek Hill to make an impact on yet another Phillies-Nationals series.
Wood has the power and ability to make the Phillies pay if they are not careful.
The Nationals’ cornerstone player is 0-11 in his career against Cristopher Sanchez, who starts for the Phillies on Tuesday. Keeping him off the board will be key if the Phillies aim to take this series from D.C.
In his career, the young outfielder is hitting .207 with a .645 OPS against the Phillies.
The task is simple: keep Wood from doing damage. If the Phillies complete their goal, they should take both games in the series.
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